Diamond Life DFS Solves UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse (DK and FD Slates)

MMA DFS Solver — DK Slate Summary

The Monte Carlo + XVO v3 analysis gives us a fairly clear tournament structure. The biggest takeaway is that the $8.3K–$9K range contains the best combination of ceiling, value, and ownership leverage, rather than simply paying for the highest raw projections.

🏆 Best Overall XVO Plays

Rank	Fighter	Salary	RST%	P95	P99	XVO v3
1	Michael Aljarouj	$8,400	14.4%	153.1	170.4	91.88
2	Felipe Lima	$8,900	16.4%	151.6	170.7	89.85
3	Delphine Benouaich	$8,500	13.9%	150.0	170.2	89.24
4	Nora Cornolle	$8,300	13.1%	150.6	168.6	88.86
5	Daniil Donchenko	$9,000	15.2%	147.7	162.9	88.14
6	Fares Ziam	$8,600	15.8%	148.9	167.5	86.49
7	Oumar Sy	$8,800	14.8%	144.5	161.2	84.19

🔥 Best Overall Tournament Target: Michael Aljarouj

Aljarouj is the standout.

At $8,400 and only 14.4% ownership, he gives us:

#1 XVO v3 — 91.88
153.1 P95
170.4 P99

That combination of salary, ceiling and ownership makes him an excellent SE/3-Max separator and one of my preferred fighters around which to construct the tournament player pool.

🎯 Elite Leverage Cluster

The most attractive part of the slate is:

Aljarouj – Benouaich – Cornolle – Ziam

All four sit between $8,300 and $8,600, all project below 16% ownership, and all possess roughly 149–153 P95 ceilings.

That is probably the most exploitable salary tier on the slate.

Cornolle deserves particular attention. At just 13.1% RST, she reaches 150.6 P95 and 168.6 P99. She gives us one of the strongest ceiling-to-ownership relationships available.

💰 Preferred Spend-Ups

My order among the more expensive fighters is:

1. Daniil Donchenko
2. Felipe Lima
3. Nathaniel Wood
4. Losene Keita
5. Kurtis Campbell

Lima actually has the highest XVO of this group at 89.85, while Donchenko’s combination of salary, 15.2% ownership and tournament ceiling makes him particularly attractive when we’re deliberately seeking differentiation.

⚠️ Salahdine Parnasse Is the Interesting Decision

Parnasse has the slate’s highest raw projection at 92.74, so there is nothing inherently wrong with rostering him.

But XVO doesn’t love the tournament proposition.

His 24.8% ownership and roughly 134.6 P95 push him down to #13 XVO at 70.56.

That’s important because several fighters costing $600–$900 less have materially higher simulated upper-tail outcomes at considerably lower ownership.

So I see Parnasse as:

Excellent median/projection play → weaker GPP leverage play.

That makes him a reasonable candidate to be underweight rather than necessarily full fade.

☠️ Fragile Chalk

The ownership profiles I am most cautious about are Luis Felipe Dias, Klaudia Sygula, Sofia Montenegro, and to a lesser degree Parnasse.

They are attracting more ownership than their simulated tournament separation warrants.

That creates an obvious game-theory opportunity: instead of following the field into those concentrated ownership points, redistribute exposure toward the strong $8K XVO cluster.

🎲 Deep GPP Separators

Muhammadjon Naimov, Ryan Spann and Trevor Peek shouldn’t be mistaken for core plays. Their median projections and overall XVO are much weaker.

But their extremely low ownership combined with volatile finish-driven outcomes makes them viable MME dart/separator options.

They’re useful primarily when we’re intentionally accepting additional failure probability in exchange for lineup uniqueness and a nonlinear payoff if they hit their ceiling.

My MMA Pool Structure

For SE/3-Max, the fighters I would prioritize most heavily are:

Aljarouj → Lima → Benouaich → Cornolle → Donchenko → Ziam → Sy

Then incorporate Wood / Keita / Campbell as secondary spend-up exposure.

For MME, expand that group and introduce the lower-owned volatile fighters such as Naimov, Spann and Peek.

The central strategic conclusion is clear: don’t simply chase the highest projections on this slate. The strongest tournament economics are concentrated around $8.3K–$9K, where we can obtain 150-ish point upper-tail outcomes at roughly 13–16% ownership.

Aljarouj is currently the solver’s strongest overall XVO tournament target.

MMA DFS Solver — FD Slate Summary

Slate leaders — XVO v3

Rank	Fighter	Salary	Projection	RST%	XVO v3	Read
1	Delphine Benouaich	15	91.62	19.3%	80.33	Elite value/core
2	Daniil Donchenko	19	95.45	18.9%	79.26	Elite ceiling + leverage
3	Nora Cornolle	13	84.50	17.9%	76.45	Outstanding salary-adjusted play
4	Mario Pinto	20	94.64	20.1%	75.41	Premium spend-up
5	Oumar Sy	18	92.54	19.1%	73.53	Strong balanced tournament play
6	Michael Aljarouj	17	87.54	18.3%	69.97	Strong secondary target
7	Felipe Lima	19	94.00	21.0%	69.36	Strong raw ceiling
8	Losene Keita	21	93.54	20.0%	69.32	High-end ceiling
9	Kurtis Campbell	22	96.04	22.3%	69.00	Highest projection, but expensive
10	Fares Ziam	17	89.20	20.4%	68.85	Solid but less separating

The three fighters that jump off the page

1. Delphine Benouaich — best overall XVO play

She is arguably the slate’s most important solver result. At only 15 salary, she’s projected for 91.62 points, has an enormous 6,108 VAL, and carries only 19.3% RST. That produces the slate-leading 80.33 XVO.

She isn’t simply a salary saver. Her projection is close enough to the expensive favorites that she provides genuine access to a high-scoring roster construction while freeing substantial salary.

BOOST: Strong.

2. Daniil Donchenko — best premium combination

Donchenko is my favorite expensive fighter from the XVO perspective.

He brings a 95.45 projection, 5,023.68 value, only 18.9% ownership, and 79.26 XVO. Compare that with Campbell at 22.3% ownership and 69.00 XVO.

Donchenko gives us almost the same raw projection while costing three salary units less and attracting less ownership.

BOOST: Strong.

3. Nora Cornolle — salary-adjusted separator

Cornolle is extremely interesting.

At salary 13, she still projects for 84.50, producing the slate’s best raw VAL at 6,500. She’s also only 17.9% RST.

Her 76.45 XVO ranks third overall.

For tournament construction, Cornolle may be even more useful than several fighters projecting 8–12 points higher because of what the salary savings allow elsewhere.

BOOST: Strong.

Premium fighter hierarchy

Among the expensive favorites, I’d currently order them:

Donchenko > Pinto > Oumar Sy > Aljarouj > Lima > Keita > Campbell > Ziam

Campbell is an interesting case. He owns the highest raw projection on the slate at 96.04, but he’s also the most expensive fighter at 22 and carries 22.3% ownership.

His XVO falls to 69.00, versus Donchenko’s 79.26.

That’s exactly the kind of opportunity-cost distinction XVO is designed to expose.

Campbell is certainly playable. He simply isn’t the automatic priority that his raw projection suggests.

Midrange/value targets

There is a very attractive value cluster:

Benouaich — 80.33 XVO
Cornolle — 76.45
Klaudia Sygula — 53.39
Sofia Montenegro — 52.47

Sygula and Montenegro become more interesting when we deliberately want to move away from the obvious Benouaich/Cornolle constructions.

Montenegro is particularly useful as a tournament salary release because she’s only 10.2% RST.

Secondary leverage targets

These aren’t core plays, but they deserve consideration when building differentiated tournament pools:

Michael Page — 47.03 XVO / 13.0% RST

His projection isn’t comparable with the elite group, but the ownership is considerably lower.

Luis Felipe Dias — 46.75 / 12.2%

Another legitimate ownership pivot. I prefer him as a diversification piece rather than a primary core fighter.

Sofia Montenegro — 52.47 / 10.2%

Probably my favorite lower-owned salary-saving option because she combines the lowest ownership of these three with a stronger XVO score.

Fragile chalk

This is where the solver produces some of its most actionable information.

🚨 Dan Hooker

Salary: 8
Projection: 36.21
RST: 22.7%
XVO: 10.58

This is the most obvious fade signal.

Hooker’s salary is clearly driving ownership, but his projection and XVO don’t justify 22.7% of the field getting there.

FADE / significantly underweight.

🚨 Axel Sola

Salary: 15
Projection: 62.50
RST: 28.6%
XVO: 25.33

This is arguably an even more interesting game-theory fade.

Sola is the highest-owned fighter in the entire uploaded slate, yet his XVO is nowhere near the elite tier.

At essentially the same salary, Benouaich projects 29 points higher and carries substantially less ownership.

That’s a massive solver discrepancy.

FADE / underweight.

🚨 Fabia Sintes

Salary: 12
Projection: 60.65
RST: 26.8%
XVO: 35.37

Another ownership/projection disconnect.

Cornolle costs only one more salary unit, projects almost 24 points higher, carries only 17.9% ownership and has more than double Sintes’ XVO.

FADE/underweight relative to field.

Low-salary darts

The solver does not particularly like the bottom range:

Fighter	Sal	RST%	XVO
Muhammadjon Naimov	9	11.9%	22.42
Ryan Spann	10	9.5%	20.95
Trevor Peek	9	9.4%	18.64
Morgan Charriere	11	10.3%	18.46
Punahele Soriano	10	9.8%	18.09
Modestas Bukauskas	11	18.3%	17.23
Dan Hooker	8	22.7%	10.58

If forced into this region, Naimov and Spann are the two I prefer.

Hooker is last.

My streamlined SE/small-field approach

The strongest core is:

Benouaich + Donchenko + Cornolle

Those three rank #1, #2 and #3 in XVO while none exceeds 20% ownership.

From there, Pinto and Oumar Sy are excellent additions when salary permits.

For more differentiation, Montenegro is my preferred lower-owned salary play, while Page/Dias offer additional diversification.

The most compelling field-level strategy is to take advantage of the ownership accumulating on Sola, Sintes and Hooker. All three are being rostered substantially more aggressively than their XVO profiles warrant.

Bottom line

Best overall: Benouaich
Best premium: Donchenko
Best value: Cornolle
Best expensive alternative: Pinto
Balanced upside target: Oumar Sy
Lower-owned salary separator: Montenegro
Deeper leverage: Page / Dias
Strongest fragile-chalk fade: Hooker
Most interesting ownership fade: Sola
Secondary chalk fade: Sintes

The Benouaich–Donchenko–Cornolle trio is the central solver finding from this slate.