The optimization model yields a heavy structural bias toward the upper salary tier, demonstrating that slate-breaking upside is concentrated primarily among high-priced fighters. Umar Nurmagomedov functions as the definitive core asset, while Sean Woodson and Ding Meng present optimal salary-adjusted mechanisms to capture right-tail distributions without fully exhausting capital constraints.
| Rank | Fighter | Salary | Proj | P90 | P95 | P99 | SACP | RT Separation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Umar Nurmagomedov | $9,500 | 96.87 | 135.2 | 150.4 | 183.7 | 146.0 | 100.0 |
| 2 | Bilal Hasan | $9,600 | 93.39 | 131.0 | 146.0 | 179.0 | 141.7 | 95.8 |
| 3 | Andre Lima | $9,000 | 90.27 | 127.2 | 142.0 | 174.7 | 137.9 | 94.4 |
| 4 | Kai Asakura | $9,400 | 90.17 | 127.1 | 141.9 | 174.5 | 137.7 | 92.8 |
| 5 | Su Mudaerji | $8,800 | 86.00 | 121.9 | 136.5 | 168.6 | 132.5 | 90.0 |
| 6 | Sean Woodson | $8,400 | 83.14 | 118.4 | 132.7 | 164.4 | 128.8 | 88.1 |
| 7 | Liu Ce | $8,700 | 83.47 | 118.8 | 133.1 | 164.9 | 129.2 | 87.3 |
| 8 | Rei Tsuruya | $9,700 | 85.12 | 120.8 | 135.3 | 167.3 | 131.4 | 86.0 |
| 9 | Ding Meng | $8,300 | 81.09 | 115.8 | 129.9 | 161.3 | 126.2 | 85.9 |
| 10 | Julia Polastri | $8,900 | 82.24 | 117.2 | 131.5 | 163.0 | 127.6 | 85.1 |
Quantitative Evaluation & Portfolio Allocation
- Umar Nurmagomedov (Anchor Asset): Dominates all primary metrics, including Right-Tail Separation, SACP, baseline projection, and salary-adjusted P95 ceiling. His modeled 183.7-point P99 establishes an absolute ceiling that serves as the primary engine for high-variance tournament strategies.
- Andre Lima (Efficient Premium Option): Represents the most capital-efficient premium build. At $9,000, Lima captures near-parity with Hasan and Asakura regarding tail probability, generating 15.78 P95 points per $1K (3rd overall). This cost efficiency preserves ceiling access while expanding salary flexibility elsewhere.
- Sean Woodson (Mid-Tier Divergence): Exhibits the most compelling risk-adjusted profile in the mid-range. At an $8,400 price point, Woodson ranks 6th in total Right-Tail Separation and 2nd in P95 salary efficiency, offering a modeled 132.7 P95 / 164.4 P99 outcome that disproportionately elevates portfolio expectation.
- Ding Meng (Value-Tier Asymmetry): Provides critical tail access at $8,300, ranking 4th in P95 efficiency per $1K with a robust 161.3 P99. He functions as the primary target when financial constraints prevent exposure to Woodson or the $8.8K+ tier.
- Su Mudaerji (Balanced Allocation): Offers a stable middle ground. While trailing the absolute ceiling of the top tier, his $8,800 valuation yields an optimal equilibrium between expected mean output, SACP, and a 168.6-point P99.
Sub-Optimal Allocations & Cost Inefficiencies
- Rei Tsuruya ($9,700): Exhibits substantial opportunity cost. Despite commanding the highest salary, Tsuruya ranks 12th in P95 salary efficiency, underperforming relative cost compared to Nurmagomedov, Lima, and Woodson.
- Sub-$8,000 Tier: Characterized by severe statistical degradation. Cameron Nelson ($7,900) serves as the sole viable value release (104.9 P95 / 132.6 P99), beyond which secondary options like Jack Jenkins and Denise Gomes fail to project sufficient leverage to justify portfolio inclusion.
Core Target Hierarchy
- Umar Nurmagomedov — Absolute ceiling anchor
- Andre Lima — High-efficiency premium alternative
- Sean Woodson — Optimal mid-tier leverage target
- Bilal Hasan — Elite raw right-tail probability
- Su Mudaerji — High-floor/high-ceiling hybrid
- Ding Meng — Value-adjusted asymmetric play
- Kai Asakura — High absolute ceiling; marginal efficiency penalty
- Liu Ce — Secondary GPP derivative
Methodological Constraint: This model currently operates without RST% ownership metrics. Consequently, the Right-Tail MME Separation index strictly captures ceiling metrics, distributional variance, and price efficiency rather than game-theoretic leverage. The integration of empirical ownership estimates may subsequently shift relative rankings.
For Single-Entry / Small-Field Contests, the optimal core configuration is Nurmagomedov + Woodson + Meng, effectively capturing the maximum right-tail distribution of the slate while maximizing capital efficiency.
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