The full simulation points to a slate where the $8.2K–$8.9K range is unusually important. The expensive tier owns the best absolute ceilings, but several mid-range fighters retain enough P95/P99 to challenge them while creating much stronger salary-adjusted builds. The key is not simply “stars and scrubs”; it is selectively paying for elite SACP while exploiting the right-tail cluster immediately below them.

Right-tail trends

John Castaneda is the strongest pure ceiling play in the model. He ranks #1 in SACP at 170.53, with a P95 of 154.23 and slate-best P99 of 173.98. At $9,200, he also gives you a better value profile than Yazmin Jauregui while costing $600 less.

Jauregui is essentially alongside him in raw upside—169.79 SACP / 173.02 P99—but the $9,800 salary and estimated 42.3% ownership reduce her leverage. She is excellent chalk, but not necessarily the fighter whose exposure needs to dwarf the field.

The most interesting part starts below $9K:

Fighter	Salary	SACP	P95	P99	Est. RST%	RT Rank
Valesca Machado	$8,900	164.75	148.92	168.74	38.2%	7
Montel Jackson	$8,800	162.59	146.95	166.81	37.3%	6
Rodolfo Bellato	$8,600	158.54	143.23	162.87	35.4%	4
Ailin Perez	$8,300	144.38	130.49	150.88	29.6%	1
Rodolfo Vieira	$8,400	142.01	128.40	148.89	29.1%	5
Josiah Harrell	$8,200	141.05	127.49	147.71	28.4%	2
Elves Brener	$8,000	130.74	118.23	139.70	24.6%	3

That is the slate’s major tournament signal. Perez, Harrell and Brener rank only 9th, 12th and 13th in SACP, but jump to #1, #2 and #3 in salary-adjusted Right-Tail MME Separation.

In other words, their median outcomes aren’t why we want them. Their ability to produce an upper-tail score at their salaries is.

Best spend-ups to reach ceiling

1. John Castaneda — $9,200

Primary spend-up anchor

Castaneda has the best combination of everything we care about:

• #1 SACP — 170.53
• #1 P99 — 173.98
• P95 — 154.23
• 43.13 SD
• XVO — 85.33
• Better salary efficiency than Jauregui

He’s my preferred fighter if the question is simply: which expensive fighter gives me the best combination of raw ceiling and roster flexibility?

2. Mehemmedeli Osmanli — $9,100

Excellent alternative spend-up

Osmanli isn’t far behind:

169.15 SACP / 152.97 P95 / 172.75 P99 / 84.91 XVO.

His modeled ownership is slightly below Castaneda and Jauregui. That’s enough to make him particularly attractive when you’re building multiple tournament entries.

3. Yazmin Jauregui — $9,800

Highest-priced elite ceiling

There’s nothing wrong with the projection: 153.84 P95 and 173.02 P99 are elite.

The question is opportunity cost. Paying $9,800 instead of $9,100–$9,200 doesn’t buy additional P99 ceiling in this simulation. She’s therefore more attractive when salary naturally works than as someone I’d force into every construction.

4. Valesca Machado — $8,900

This is where things become interesting.

Machado gives you:

164.75 SACP / 168.74 P99 / #1 Tail Leverage rank.

That’s only about 5 SACP points behind Castaneda while saving $300 and about 6.5 percentage points of estimated ownership.

She’s one of my favorite ceiling + leverage combinations on the entire slate.

5. Montel Jackson — $8,800

Jackson is similar.

His 166.81 P99 is only ~7 points below Castaneda’s slate-leading P99, but you save $400 and drop into a somewhat lower ownership band.

For GPP purposes, Machado/Jackson are more interesting than their salaries initially suggest.

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The strongest value zone

There’s a major difference between cheap and good value on this slate.

The simulation does not particularly like the true punt tier.

Brady Hiestand ($6,900) falls to 68.32 SACP, while Vanessa Demopoulos ($6,400) sits at 64.71. Their P99s of 87.08 and 81.76 are dramatically below what the midrange can produce.

So I would not automatically jam $9K fighters and assume the $6K range can rescue salary.

Ailin Perez — $8,300

Best right-tail value

Perez’s #1 Right-Tail MME Separation ranking is one of the strongest findings from the entire run.

P90: 118.42
P95: 130.49
P99: 150.88

A $150+ simulated extreme-tail outcome from an $8,300 fighter is extremely useful because she doesn’t require the same roster sacrifices as the $9K tier.

Josiah Harrell — $8,200

Best alternative right-tail value

Harrell is #2 in RT Separation with:

115.22 P90 / 127.49 P95 / 147.71 P99.

His SACP isn’t elite at 141.05, but that’s precisely why he can become useful as a tournament separator rather than an obvious projection play.

Rodolfo Vieira — $8,400

Vieira sits between those profiles.

He’s #5 RT Separation, with a 148.89 P99.

Perez has slightly more upside and Harrell slightly better salary efficiency, but Vieira provides another viable route into this midrange.

Elves Brener — $8,000

Brener is arguably the most intriguing salary saver.

His baseline FPTS is only 67.09, yet the simulated distribution reaches:

106.00 P90 → 118.23 P95 → 139.70 P99.

That expanding upper tail drives him to #3 in RT MME Separation.

He’s exactly the type of fighter who can look mediocre under median/projection analysis but become much more relevant once we’re constructing for first-place outcomes.

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Smart pivots

These are the pivot relationships I would exploit.

Popular/obvious construction	Pivot	Why
Jauregui $9,800	Castaneda $9,200	Higher SACP/P99 + $600 savings
Jauregui	Osmanli $9,100	Similar P99, cheaper, lower modeled ownership
$9K+ spend-up	Machado $8,900	#1 Tail Leverage, 168.74 P99
Machado	Montel Jackson $8,800	Similar ceiling band, slightly cheaper
Jackson/Machado	Bellato $8,600	#4 RT Separation and strong tail
Raul Rosas $8,700	Bellato $8,600	Bellato has materially higher SACP/P95/P99
Midrange median play	Perez $8,300	Slate-leading salary-adjusted RT separation
Perez	Harrell $8,200	$100 cheaper and #2 RT Separation
Need $200–400 more	Brener $8,000	#3 RT Separation despite modest median

Bellato deserves particular attention. At $8,600 he has a 162.87 P99 and 158.54 SACP, yet he ranks #4 in salary-adjusted Right-Tail Separation and #2 in Tail Leverage.

He sits in a sweet spot between the obvious upper tier and the more aggressive $8K values.

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Fighters I’m less enthusiastic about at their prices

Rinya Nakamura ($9,300) stands out as an opportunity-cost concern.

He’s more expensive than Castaneda and Osmanli but produces only 155.62 SACP and 160.23 P99. Those aren’t bad numbers—they’re simply materially behind what similarly priced fighters provide.

Raul Rosas ($8,700) has a similar problem. His 143.10 SACP / 148.77 P99 are substantially below Bellato at $8,600 and Jackson at $8,800.

That doesn’t mean either fighter cannot score well. It means the solver sees stronger ways to spend approximately the same salary.

At the bottom, Hiestand and Demopoulos require a much more specific lineup-construction reason because the right-tail ceiling loss becomes severe.

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How I’d attack the slate

For Single Entry/small field, I would concentrate around the stronger combination of raw SACP and upper-tail certainty:

Castaneda / Osmanli → Machado / Jackson / Bellato → Perez/Vieira

You don’t necessarily need to get extremely cute. There is enough differentiation within the good plays.

For 3-Max, I’d expand more aggressively into:

Castaneda, Osmanli, Machado, Jackson, Bellato, Perez, Harrell, Vieira and Brener.

The most important construction concept is avoiding the assumption that the lineup needs both the most expensive fighters and the cheapest punt.

The solver instead identifies a very attractive balanced $8K–low-$9K construction. Perez, Harrell, Vieira and Brener provide enough right-tail access that they can finance Castaneda/Osmanli/Machado without forcing you into the weakest $6K outcomes.

My core solver tiers

Absolute ceiling anchors:
Castaneda → Osmanli → Jauregui

Ceiling + leverage sweet spot:
Machado → Jackson → Bellato

Right-tail tournament values:
Perez → Harrell → Vieira → Brener

Most interesting overall tournament plays:
Castaneda, Machado, Bellato, Perez and Harrell.

The sneaky takeaway is Bellato + Perez. Neither leads the slate in raw projection, but their combination of salary, SACP, tail leverage and P95/P99 access makes them extremely useful pieces around whichever premium ceiling fighter you decide to anchor.