We ran the 26-fighter slate through our MMA Diamond Life framework using the uploaded projections, salaries, standard deviations, optimal rates, and projected ownership. The model incorporates Monte Carlo upper-tail outcomes, (Solver-Adjusted Ceiling Projections) SACP, Tail Leverage, and the Right-Tail MME Separation layer.
Top overall solver plays
| Rank | Fighter | Salary | Proj. | Own. | SACP | Tail Lev. | Right-Tail |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jean Silva | $9,300 | 102.35 | 42.9% | 218.2 | 72.0 | 85.0 |
| 2 | Ignacio Bahamondes | $9,500 | 85.88 | 22.6% | 174.0 | 67.3 | 61.0 |
| 3 | Yousri Belgaroui | $9,700 | 92.63 | 25.6% | 177.4 | 66.6 | 58.9 |
| 4 | Tommy Gantt | $9,400 | 86.44 | 25.6% | 173.3 | 63.2 | 58.7 |
| 5 | Waldo Cortes Acosta | $8,700 | 74.09 | 29.0% | 168.3 | 56.7 | 60.6 |
| 6 | Tommy McMillen | $8,600 | 69.65 | 37.3% | 167.4 | 49.7 | 59.0 |
| 7 | Edgar Chairez | $8,800 | 72.89 | 26.2% | 159.9 | 54.9 | 54.7 |
| 8 | David Martinez | $9,200 | 79.26 | 24.8% | 159.9 | 54.4 | 51.3 |
Jean Silva is the slate’s premier anchor
Silva separates substantially from everyone else. He carries the highest raw projection at 102.35, a 79% win probability, a massive 65.0% >100-point probability, and the best simulated upper tail. His Monte Carlo distribution reached approximately P90 165.5 / P95 183.7 / P99 216.8.
His 42.9% ownership is significant, but unlike a lot of MMA chalk, it is supported by a 48.9% optimal rate, giving him +6 percentage points of leverage. For SE/3-Max, this is good chalk rather than automatic fade chalk.
Best spend-up pivots from Silva
Ignacio Bahamondes is my favorite ownership-adjusted alternative. At only 22.6% ownership, he carries positive leverage, excellent SACP and the #2 Right-Tail Separation score. He gives you much more differentiation than simply moving to another similarly owned favorite.
Yousri Belgaroui is the strongest pure-projection alternative. His 92.63 projection is second on the slate, while his ownership is only about 25.6%. His combination of floor and ceiling makes him particularly attractive in SE.
Tommy Gantt has comparable ceiling access to Bahamondes/Belgaroui, but his 25.6% ownership exceeds his 22.9% optimal rate. I like the upside but rank him slightly below the other two on game theory.
So my spend-up hierarchy is:
Silva > Bahamondes ≈ Belgaroui > Gantt > Martinez.
Mid-range sweet spot
The solver really likes Waldo Cortes Acosta.
At $8,700, Acosta has a modest 74.09 median projection but a much more appealing simulated ceiling: approximately P95 146.8 / P99 176.4. His 31.5% optimal rate also exceeds his 29% ownership.
That’s exactly the type of fighter our Right-Tail engine elevates beyond raw median projection.
Edgar Chairez is another strong tournament play. His ownership is manageable at 26.2%, his optimal rate is 28%, and his upper-tail distribution remains strong.
Best value / salary-release plays
| Fighter | Salary | Own. | SACP | Right-Tail | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jose Delgado | $6,900 | 21.0% | 143.8 | 59.0 | Elite punt ceiling |
| Marwan Rahiki | $7,600 | 30.1% | 149.2 | 53.6 | Best median/tail combo |
| Curtis Blaydes | $7,500 | 23.6% | 130.0 | 40.2 | Solid |
| Rafa Garcia | $7,700 | 21.6% | 131.9 | 39.7 | Balanced value |
| Alexa Grasso | $7,300 | 19.1% | 126.7 | 38.9 | Leverage value |
| Jessie Rosas | $7,800 | 15.9% | 124.1 | 34.6 | Low-owned separator |
Two stand out.
Jose Delgado is the best extreme punt. His median projection isn’t special, but his 48.44 SD is enormous, producing approximately P95 126 and P99 159 outcomes in the simulation. That’s why his Right-Tail Separation score ranks fifth on the entire slate despite a $6,900 salary.
That’s exactly the profile we want when punting in MMA: don’t buy a low salary merely because someone projects for 45 points; buy access to the 100+ outcome.
Marwan Rahiki is the safer value. He’s more expensive and far more popular, but offers a much stronger median projection than Delgado while retaining a very large ceiling distribution.
Best lower-owned separators
Among fighters below roughly 20% ownership:
- Alexa Grasso — $7,300 / 19.1%
- Jessie Rosas — $7,800 / 15.9%
- JJ Aldrich — $7,100 / 17.4%
- Drakkar Klose — $6,800 / 14.3%
- Dan Ige — $7,000 / 12.8%
Grasso is my favorite of that group for SE/3-Max because she combines positive ownership leverage (+1.8) with materially better SACP than the deeper punts.
Rosas is more of a true tournament separator. The ownership discount to 15.9% is attractive, although her raw winning/ceiling profile isn’t as strong.
Fragile chalk
The clearest red flag is Tommy McMillen.
He is projected for 37.3% ownership but only 32.9% optimal, giving him -4.37 leverage, the worst meaningful chalk differential on the slate. His variance means he absolutely can win a tournament, but you’re paying a large ownership premium for that possibility.
I would be underweight McMillen relative to Silva/Acosta/Bahamondes.
Other mildly over-owned fighters include:
- Regina Tarin: 23.0% owned vs. 19.9% optimal
- Sean King III: 25.5% vs. 22.5%
- Tommy Gantt: 25.6% vs. 22.9%
- Rong Rongzhu: 25.5% vs. 23.7%
These aren’t mandatory fades, but they’re considerably easier to move away from than Silva.
Interesting fight environment
The Jean Silva–Jose Delgado fight jumps off the page.
It has the slate’s highest listed Fight Total (156.3) and Pace (8.27), plus five scheduled rounds. Silva provides the dominant favorite ceiling, while Delgado produces one of the slate’s widest underdog distributions.
For standard SE I strongly prefer Silva alone. For larger-field/Multi-Entry builds, Delgado is one of the best ways to capture the Silva-failure branch. I would not make opponent stacking a default strategy, but this particular five-round environment is one of the rare fights where its scoring environment deserves consideration.
SE / 3-Max core
For the tighter player pool you normally prefer in MMA, my starting priority set would be:
Spend-ups: Jean Silva, Ignacio Bahamondes, Yousri Belgaroui
Mid-range: Waldo Cortes Acosta, Edgar Chairez
Values: Marwan Rahiki, Alexa Grasso
Punt/right-tail separator: Jose Delgado
Contrarian secondary: Jessie Rosas
For Single Entry, I’d build the strategy around Silva + one of Bahamondes/Belgaroui + a strong mid-range tail play, then use salary relief intelligently rather than forcing multiple hopeless underdogs.
For 3-Max, I’d diversify the salary construction with one lineup taking the Silva ceiling, another leaning Bahamondes/Belgaroui, and a third incorporating the Delgado failure-path branch.
The three fighters I see as the most important tournament decisions are Jean Silva as the elite chalk anchor, Ignacio Bahamondes as the best spend-up separator, and Jose Delgado as the highest-upside punt.
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