UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 – Full Breakdown for your DFS and Parlay Needs

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Here’s the full Diamond Life MMA breakdown.

Main Takeaway

Best overall play: Gable Steveson
Best GPP leverage/value combo: Terrance McKinney
Best reduced GPP pool: Gable Steveson, Terrance McKinney, Ryan Gandra, Damian Pinas, Alessandro Costa, Adrian Yanez, Benoit Saint-Denis, Robert Whittaker
Best SE core path: Gable Steveson, Farid Basharat, Max Holloway, Adrian Yanez, Luke Riley

Priority Rankings

Put these players in your parlays and jam them in DFS GPP tourneys…

  1. Gable Steveson — $9,900
    SACP 157.2, XVO-V 104.2, finish equity 79.1, ownership 13.0%, bust 19.2.
    Clear slate-breaker. Highest ceiling, strongest win equity, best projection strength.
  2. Terrance McKinney — $8,400
    SACP 117.6, XVO-V 80.8, finish equity 52.8, ownership 11.1%.
    Best tournament leverage profile. Elite finish upside for the salary.
  3. Damian Pinas — $8,900
    SACP 120.5, XVO-V 79.1, finish equity 45.8.
    Strong ceiling + strong leverage. Excellent GPP piece.
  4. Ryan Gandra — $8,600
    SACP 115.6, XVO-V 78.1, finish equity 44.5.
    Great mid-tier tournament profile with strong leverage score.
  5. Adrian Yanez — $9,400
    SACP 123.1, XVO-V 77.9, finish equity 43.3.
    Strong SE/GPP hybrid. Good ceiling without extreme bust risk.
  6. Alessandro Costa — $9,100
    SACP 118.7, XVO-V 77.2, finish equity 42.3.
    Solid high-end option, slightly behind Pinas/McKinney for leverage.
  7. Farid Basharat — $9,600
    SACP 123.6, XVO-V 77.2, bust 29.7.
    Safer than most, better for SE than pure leverage GPPs.
  8. Max Holloway — $9,000
    SACP 124.7, projection 92.92, ownership 20.2%.
    Strong raw play, but ownership makes him less exciting as a tournament separator.

Top Leverage Pivots

The best pivots off expected chalk are:

  1. Gable Steveson
  2. Terrance McKinney
  3. Ryan Gandra
  4. Damian Pinas
  5. Alessandro Costa
  6. Adrian Yanez
  7. Benoit Saint-Denis
  8. Robert Whittaker

The biggest standouts are McKinney, Gandra, Pinas, and Costa because they combine strong ceiling with manageable ownership.

Best Salary-Saving Values

  1. Terrance McKinney — best value on slate
  2. Benoit Saint-Denis — strong $8.5K tournament piece
  3. Cory Sandhagen — playable value with safer profile
  4. Mario Bautista — acceptable salary relief
  5. Tracy Cortez — low-finish but stable enough as a value piece
  6. Conor McGregor — volatile punt with leverage appeal, not safe

McKinney is the clear salary-value separator because he brings real finish equity, not just point-per-dollar filler.

Fighters Most Likely to Bust

Highest risk flags:

  1. Paddy Pimblett — Bust 64.8
  2. Brandon Royval — Bust 62.4
  3. Cody Garbrandt — Bust 62.1
  4. John Garza — Bust 62.0
  5. King Green — Bust 61.6
  6. Cong Wang — Bust 59.4
  7. Nikita Krylov — Bust 58.2
  8. Cesar Almeida — Bust 57.1

The fragile chalk concerns are Paddy Pimblett, Cong Wang, King Green, and Nikita Krylov because their roster percentages are elevated relative to their bust profiles.

Single-Entry Core

Best SE path:

  1. Gable Steveson
  2. Farid Basharat
  3. Max Holloway
  4. Adrian Yanez
  5. Luke Riley
  6. Damian Pinas
  7. Alessandro Costa
  8. Lone’er Kavanagh

For SE, I’d prioritize Gable + one of Farid/Yanez/Holloway, then use Pinas/Costa/McKinney based on salary build.

Final Pool Recommendation

For large-field GPPs, I would build around:

Core: Gable Steveson, Terrance McKinney, Damian Pinas
Secondary: Ryan Gandra, Alessandro Costa, Adrian Yanez
Mix-ins: Benoit Saint-Denis, Robert Whittaker
Lower priority SE-only: Max Holloway, Farid Basharat, Luke Riley

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