Diamond Life NBA DFS — Updated Injury & Projection Analysis
Updated workbook ready
I’ve processed your latest DraftKings NBA projection file and compared it with our earlier October 28 Diamond Life Solver results.
Players in file
311
Active projections
227
Zero projections
84
Download Updated NBA Diamond Life Solver Workbook
1. Major zero-projection exclusions
The updated file identifies several significant players with zero projections:
| Player | Team in file | Updated projection |
|---|---|---|
| Anthony Edwards | MIN | 0 |
| Paolo Banchero | ORL | 0 |
| Alperen Sengun | HOU | 0 |
| Tyrese Haliburton | IND | 0 |
| Kawhi Leonard | TOR | 0 |
| Ivica Zubac | IND | 0 |
| Jalen Duren | DET | 0 |
| Jalen Suggs | ORL | 0 |
| Jimmy Butler | GSW | 0 |
| Kristaps Porzingis | GSW | 0 |
| Coby White | CHA | 0 |
| Cameron Johnson | DEN | 0 |
These players have been excluded from the updated active rankings. The source labels their injury status as Unknown, so zero projections are treated as slate exclusions rather than independently verified official injury rulings.
2. How this changes our tournament priorities
The most consequential situations to reassess are:
- Indiana: Haliburton and Zubac both carry zero projections. This creates a potential redistribution of ball-handling, minutes, and frontcourt production.
- Orlando: Banchero and Suggs are both zeroed out. Franz Wagner and the remaining rotation deserve renewed attention.
- Houston: Sengun’s zero projection makes the usage distribution involving Kevin Durant, Amen Thompson, and Jabari Smith particularly important.
- Detroit: Duren’s exclusion changes frontcourt opportunities, while Cade Cunningham remains a major ceiling target.
- Minnesota: Edwards’ zero projection creates an important offensive redistribution scenario.
These are the situations most likely to change our earlier analysis. The revised projections already reflect the latest source estimates, so we should avoid adding the same injury-related usage increase a second time.
3. Updated solver ceiling leaders
The new workbook includes a refreshed Monte Carlo simulation and injury-filtered rankings.
| Rank | Player | Updated SACP proxy |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nikola Jokic | 130.0 |
| 2 | Giannis Antetokounmpo | 125.0 |
| 3 | Jalen Johnson | 109.3 |
| 4 | Karl-Anthony Towns | 102.5 |
| 5 | Cade Cunningham | 101.9 |
| 6 | Anthony Davis | 100.5 |
| 7 | Joel Embiid | 98.8 |
| 8 | LaMelo Ball | 96.5 |
| 9 | Donovan Mitchell | 96.0 |
| 10 | Scottie Barnes | 95.9 |
Important model distinction: The latest CSV does not contain PER and USG fields. Consequently, these values are updated SACP proxies using the new projections, simulated P95 outcomes, and retained baseline premiums. They are not a full recalculation of SACP v3.2 and should not be compared directly with the earlier SACP numbers as though the methodology were unchanged.
4. What’s included in the new workbook
- Updated active player pool in source order.
- Revised SACP ceiling rankings.
- Right-Tail Separation rankings.
- Salary-adjusted value rankings.
- All 84 zero-projection players on a separate worksheet.
- Revised game-level projection and ceiling summaries.
- Monte Carlo P15/P50/P90/P95/P99 distributions.
- Methodology and modeling limitations.
5. Next priority: Reassess the slate
The zero-projection changes are significant enough that I would reconsider our earlier game rankings, particularly Orlando–Toronto, Indiana–Philadelphia, Houston–Milwaukee, Detroit–Charlotte, and Golden State–Minnesota.
The updated file also contains new ownership projections, which means our earlier leverage assessments may no longer hold.
The strongest next step is to rebuild the reader-facing slate report around these updated projections, concentrating on injury beneficiaries, changing game environments, new spend-up priorities, and ownership-adjusted right-tail opportunities.
That will give us a more current tournament strategy than simply carrying forward the original morning recommendations.
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