October 16, 2026 | 26 fighters | Tournament-focused right-tail analysis

The MMA Solver identifies a particularly interesting slate: the highest-ceiling fighters are not necessarily the most popular, while several midrange fighters offer excellent opportunities to separate from the field.

Our strategy should prioritize fighters capable of producing tournament-winning scores, not simply those with the highest projected fantasy points.

The biggest findings are:

• Mandel Nallo is my preferred high-end tournament anchor because of his combination of P99 ceiling, SACP, and manageable ownership.
• Nicholas Galanti is the strongest alternative anchor, with the highest SACP on the slate.
• Erin Blanchfield provides the strongest raw projection among the premium fighters.
• Chad Anheliger and Joaquin Buckley stand out as potential ownership-based separators.
• Javad Mahjoub and Joel Faglier carry relatively heavy ownership for their modeled ceilings, creating potential opportunities to pivot.

1. Overall right-tail trends

Highest SACP

142.91

Galanti

Highest P99

173.62

Nallo

Highest projection

96.02

Blanchfield

Top eight fighters by modeled slate-breaking ceiling

SACP 2.0 — Top eight fighters

Higher is better; modeled tournament ceiling score.

The most important observation is how tightly grouped the elite fighters are. Galanti, Nallo and Blanchfield all exceed 139 SACP. Their differences in projected ownership, salary and upper-tail scoring become particularly important when constructing GPP entries.

One qualification: the current solver uses a heuristic Gaussian simulation rather than a fight-specific finishing model. The P95/P99 figures are useful for comparing the modeled outcomes, but they do not establish true 95th- or 99th-percentile fight scores. MMA scoring is especially sensitive to finishes, knockdowns and grappling events.

2. Best spend-ups — who can actually reach ceiling?

Fighter	Salary	SACP	P99	RST%
Nicholas Galanti	$9,500	142.91	172.56	16.4%
Mandel Nallo	$9,100	142.25	173.62	14.8%
Erin Blanchfield	$9,300	139.66	172.83	18.5%
Jhonata Diniz	$8,800	134.51	165.20	17.0%
Cristian Perez	$9,200	132.22	163.94	17.2%
Louis Jourdain	$8,600	128.86	156.89	14.8%
Kyle Daukaus	$8,700	127.66	156.15	15.0%

Mandel Nallo — Preferred tournament anchor

Nallo combines the highest modeled P99 (173.62) with 142.25 SACP and only 14.8% ownership. His $9,100 salary also creates flexibility compared with Galanti and Blanchfield. This is the strongest combination of premium ceiling and relative leverage among the top three.

Nicholas Galanti — Highest-confidence anchor by solver

Galanti leads the slate in SACP (142.91) and carries -700 moneyline odds in the uploaded data. His win probability profile supports the premium salary, although his 16.4% ownership is higher than Nallo’s.

Erin Blanchfield — Raw projection leader

Blanchfield’s 96.02 projected fantasy points lead the slate. She also has 172.83 modeled P99 and 139.66 SACP. Her 18.5% ownership is the highest among the three elite anchors, making her slightly less attractive from a leverage standpoint.

Spend-up verdict: For single-entry, Galanti and Nallo are very close. For 3-Max tournaments, Nallo is my first choice, Galanti second, and Blanchfield third when prioritizing ownership separation.

3. Best midrange values — the key to winning this slate

The $8,200–$8,800 range looks especially appealing. These fighters offer substantial modeled ceiling without requiring the salary commitment of the highest-priced options.

Fighter	Salary	SACP	P95	RST%
Jhonata Diniz	$8,800	134.51	142.39	17.0%
Louis Jourdain	$8,600	128.86	136.15	14.8%
Kyle Daukaus	$8,700	127.66	135.14	15.0%
Mike Malott	$8,400	126.26	132.95	18.1%
Cody Chovancek	$8,500	125.01	130.52	13.3%
Chad Anheliger	$8,200	121.57	124.82	11.5%

My preferred midrange targets

1. Jhonata Diniz — Best raw ceiling in the midrange

Diniz has 134.51 SACP and 165.20 P99. That is only 8.40 SACP behind the overall leader, Galanti, while saving $700. He has a compelling combination of projection, salary and tournament ceiling.

2. Louis Jourdain — Strong leverage-friendly value

At $8,600 and 14.8% ownership, Jourdain provides 128.86 SACP. His modeled P99 of 156.89 makes him an appealing option when you cannot afford a second premium fighter.

3. Cody Chovancek — Under-the-radar midrange option

Chovancek has 125.01 SACP at only 13.3% projected ownership. He sacrifices some raw ceiling compared with Malott but also offers a meaningful ownership discount.

4. Chad Anheliger — Aggressive tournament separator

Anheliger is particularly interesting because his 11.5% ownership is relatively low and his 121.57 SACP is competitive with several more popular options. His +140 moneyline makes him riskier than the favorites, but he offers a distinct construction for large-field tournaments.

4. Best right-tail separators and smart pivots

This is where we can make meaningful gains over opponents who are simply selecting fighters by projection.

Fighter	Salary	RST%	SACP	P99	Tail Leverage
Mandel Nallo	$9,100	14.8%	142.25	173.62	162.72
Katlyn Cerminara	$9,000	12.5%	125.02	153.39	164.24
Cody Chovancek	$8,500	13.3%	125.01	150.78	167.51
Chad Anheliger	$8,200	11.5%	121.57	147.66	178.94
Joaquin Buckley	$7,800	13.3%	111.29	133.33	183.25
Nate Landwehr	$7,100	7.8%	88.48	104.41	240.48
Julien Leblanc	$6,700	2.2%	78.21	94.88	316.91

Tail Leverage values are from the existing solver export. High scores among inexpensive underdogs should not be mistaken for high absolute ceilings.

The best leverage opportunities

Katlyn Cerminara: At 12.5% ownership, she is an interesting alternative to more popular spend-ups. Her 125.02 SACP is below the elite group, so this is a leverage play rather than a straight ceiling upgrade.

Chad Anheliger: One of my favorite GPP pivots. He offers better modeled SACP than several popular fighters priced below him, with a meaningful ownership discount.

Joaquin Buckley: Buckley is especially interesting at $7,800. His 111.29 SACP is nearly identical to Joel Faglier’s 111.73, but his ownership is only 13.3% versus Faglier’s 26.4%.

Nate Landwehr: A salary-relief option for aggressive builds. His P99 of 104.41 is far below the premium fighters, but he offers an inexpensive way to pursue a different roster construction.

5. Fragile chalk — where the field may be making mistakes

One of the clearest findings is that several fighters have relatively high projected ownership despite weaker modeled ceilings.

Fighter	RST%	SACP	P99	Assessment
Joel Faglier	26.4%	111.73	137.71	Ownership concern
Javad Mahjoub	26.1%	116.73	143.27	Ownership concern
Su Young You	24.7%	108.30	132.56	Potential fade
Steven Koslow	23.7%	106.49	130.79	Potential fade
Marc-Andre Barriault	23.6%	106.62	129.14	Contrarian pivot opportunity
Timothy Cuamba	22.4%	102.99	123.59	Lower ceiling relative to popularity

Ownership concentration in the midrange

Projected RST% ownership for six popular fighters.

The most important comparison is Faglier versus Buckley.

Joel Faglier

$7,900

26.4% ownership

111.73 SACP

137.71 P99

Joaquin Buckley

$7,800

13.3% ownership

111.29 SACP

133.33 P99

Buckley costs $100 less and carries roughly half the ownership while surrendering just 0.44 SACP and 4.38 modeled P99 points. That is an excellent example of a smart tournament pivot.

Faglier could still be the better actual play if his fight-specific finishing probability is substantially higher than the model captures. But based strictly on the exported numbers, Buckley offers a more appealing ownership-adjusted profile.

6. Salary-adjusted right-tail access

A high P99 is useful, but the amount of ceiling purchased per $1,000 of salary helps identify efficient roster construction.

Fighter	P95/$1K	P99/$1K	RST%
Mandel Nallo	16.34	19.08	14.8%
Jhonata Diniz	16.18	18.77	17.0%
Erin Blanchfield	16.08	18.58	18.5%
Mike Malott	15.83	18.26	18.1%
Louis Jourdain	15.83	18.24	14.8%
Nicholas Galanti	15.91	18.16	16.4%
Chad Anheliger	15.22	18.01	11.5%

This is a very important observation: Nallo is not just a high-ceiling fighter; he is also the most salary-efficient P99 option in the entire slate.

Diniz ranks second by this measure. Pairing Nallo with Diniz as two core candidates is an attractive approach because it combines strong raw ceiling with efficient salary use.

7. Lower-priced values and punt fighters

There is a clear drop-off in raw scoring ceiling once we reach the cheapest fighters.

Fighter	Salary	SACP	P99	RST%
Kyle Nelson	$7,000	88.61	105.45	11.5%
Nate Landwehr	$7,100	88.48	104.41	7.8%
Tanner Boser	$7,400	87.58	105.52	12.3%
Chelsea Chandler	$7,300	84.99	101.45	8.7%
Jasmine Jasudavicius	$6,900	82.26	97.93	6.7%
Mackenzie Stiller	$7,200	80.04	94.53	4.7%
Julien Leblanc	$6,700	78.21	94.88	2.2%

My preference is to avoid forcing multiple deep punts into the same lineup.

Kyle Nelson provides the highest SACP among the $7,400-and-under fighters, while Nate Landwehr offers slightly lower ownership and a comparable ceiling.

Julien Leblanc has only 2.2% projected ownership, but his 94.88 P99 is substantially below the elite group. He is a very high-risk construction play, not a priority simply because his ownership is low.

8. Single-entry versus 3-Max tournament strategy

Strategy	Single-entry	3-Max
Premium anchor	Galanti or Nallo	Nallo, Galanti, Blanchfield
Midrange priority	Diniz, Jourdain	Diniz, Chovancek, Anheliger
Value approach	Limit deep punts	Allow selective underdogs
Ownership	Balanced leverage	More aggressive differentiation
Fragile chalk	Selective fades	Stronger pivot emphasis

For single-entry, I prefer keeping a concentrated group of high-SACP fighters, using ownership to break close decisions rather than accepting enormous projection losses.

For 3-Max, the biggest opportunity is to vary premium anchors and pair them with different midrange separators. This creates multiple routes to a winning outcome without making all three entries depend on the same upset.

9. My condensed Diamond Life fighter pool

Eight fighters prioritized for further lineup construction, subject to verifying fight pairings and final odds.

Priority	Fighter	Salary	Role
1	Mandel Nallo	$9,100	Primary ceiling anchor
2	Nicholas Galanti	$9,500	Premium win-probability anchor
3	Jhonata Diniz	$8,800	High-ceiling midrange
4	Louis Jourdain	$8,600	Balanced midrange value
5	Cody Chovancek	$8,500	Ownership separator
6	Chad Anheliger	$8,200	Aggressive leverage
7	Joaquin Buckley	$7,800	Smart chalk pivot
8	Nate Landwehr	$7,100	Contrarian salary relief

Erin Blanchfield is the strongest alternate premium fighter if raw projection becomes more important than ownership separation.

10. Final slate strategy

My preferred approach is to build around one elite anchor, one strong upper-midrange ceiling fighter, and at least one meaningful ownership separator, then fill the remaining spots based on salary, matchup compatibility and win/finish probabilities.

The most promising combinations of individual player priorities are Nallo with Diniz, Galanti with Jourdain, and Nallo with Chovancek. These are not completed lineup recommendations, and opposing fighters must not be rostered together.

There is one important limitation before locking in entries: the uploaded workbook does not provide an explicit fight-pairing column, and some moneyline entries are missing. We therefore cannot yet fully validate six-fighter lineup compatibility or model fight-specific finish outcomes.

The highest-value next improvement to our MMA Solver would be to incorporate opponent pairings, method-of-victory odds, and round-by-round finish probabilities into correlated simulations. That would help distinguish fighters with genuine 100–150-point finishing potential from fighters whose current upper-tail estimates are primarily driven by the Gaussian model.

My top three tournament targets from the current outputs are Mandel Nallo, Jhonata Diniz and Chad Anheliger. Together, they represent the three qualities we’re looking for: elite ceiling, efficient midrange upside, and ownership separation.